When the leader of an autocratic regime loses power, one of three things happens. The incumbent leadership group is replaced by democratically elected leaders. Someone from the incumbent leadership group replaces them, and the regime persists. Or the incumbent leadership group loses control to a different group that replaces it with a new autocracy. The dataset facilitates the investigation of all three kinds of transition. The data identify how regimes exit power, how much violence occurs during transitions, and whether the regimes that precede and succeed them are autocratic. The data identify autocratic regime breakdowns regardless of whether the country democratizes, which makes possible the investigation of why the ouster of dictators sometimes leads to democracy but often does not, and many other questions.
Last updated by source: 2014-06-20
Dataset type: | Time-Series |
Dataset level: | Country |
(Geddes et al.,
2014)
Time-varying duration of autocratic regime up to time t.
More about this variableBinary indicator of autocratic regime failure.
More about this variableCategorical variable marking the subsequent regime type: 0. No regime failure at duration time t and regime still in power December 31, 2010 1. Subsequent regime is democracy 2. Subsequent regime is autocratic 3. Subsequent regime is warlord, foreign-occupied or ceases to exist
More about this variableCategorical variable marking how the autocratic regime ends: 0. Regime still in power on December 31, 2010 1. Regime insiders change rules of regime 2. Incumbent loses elections 3. No incumbent runs in competitive election won by opponent 4. Popular uprising 5. Military coup 6. Insurgents, revolutionaries, or combatants fighting a civil war 7. Foreign imposition or invasion 8. A new autocratic leader is selected, changes rules, and remains in power 9. State ceases to exist, ends or government fails to control most of the country's territory
More about this variableCategorical variable marking the level of violence during the autocratic regime failure event: 0: Regime still in power on December 31, 2010 1. No deaths 2. 1-25 deaths 3. 26-1000 deaths 4. >1000
More about this variableAutocratic regime type: 1. Monarchy 2. Personal 3. Military 4. Party 5. Party-Personal 6. Party-Military 7. Military-Personal 8. Party-Personal-Military 9. Oligarchy 10. Indirect Military
More about this variable